Forum für Wissenschaft, Industrie und Wirtschaft

Hauptsponsoren:     3M 
Datenbankrecherche:

 

New Methodology to Predict Pandemics

15.02.2013
Current Research Uses Smart Surveillance to Rapidly Identify Emerging Disease Threats

EcoHealth Alliance, the nonprofit organization that focuses on local conservation and global health issues, announced new research focused on the rapid identification of disease outbreaks in the peer reviewed publication, Journal of the Royal Society Interface.

The article, authored by leading scientists in the fields of emerging disease ecology, biomathematics, computational biology and bioinformatics, shows how network theory can be used to identify outbreaks of unidentified diseases. The strategy builds on the wealth of online surveillance data and increased reporting and tracking of emerging infectious diseases via the Internet.

Pandemics often first emerge in remote regions, and early in their development, the identity of the cause is often unknown. In many cases these events turn out to be known diseases that don't require emergency action, and cutting through the clutter and uncertainty to determine which outbreaks are important is a critical challenge.

The newly released research used a simple set of data collected at the earliest stages of an outbreak such as symptoms, time of year, and percentage of the population that died (the case fatality rate). This information was collected from 125 reports of outbreaks on 10 known infectious diseases causing encephalitis (brain or neural infection) in South Asia - a known 'hotspot' for new disease outbreaks.
The data was analyzed to examine whether outbreaks of the same disease clustered together, based on basic outbreak properties (symptoms, timing and case fatality rate). Results showed that diseases such as Nipah virus - an emerging and very lethal disease - showed distinct characteristic patterns within such a network and clustered separately to other more established diseases such as malaria and Japanese encephalitis. The team was then able to take outbreaks caused by unknown pathogens and provide a probable diagnosis for these 'mystery diseases'. The initial analysis shows a promising advantage to aid in predicting and preventing possible pandemic diseases that can result in devastating losses in life and global economic crises. "This application of network theory is exciting not only because it provides a fast, affordable method for associating undiagnosed outbreaks with a set of most likely known diseases, but perhaps most importantly because it provides a method for researchers to work with public health experts to identify potentially novel pathogen threats, as these agents will not fall into any of the known disease clusters and therefore can be easily identified," said Dr. Tiffany Bogich, Princeton University.

Often, new pandemics start as a few cases of an unknown disease in a remote region of the globe. After a few weeks or months depending on conditions, the disease continues to spread through the rapid movement of global travelers. As with the SARS outbreak, the virus incubated for a few months in China before it spread to Hong Kong, Canada and other points around the world. In 2009, the outbreak of H1N1 'Swine' flu circulated in Mexico for at least a couple of months before it was discovered as a real threat to public health. When Nipah virus caused outbreaks in pigs and farm workers in Malaysia, many health officials thought the disease was symptomatic of Japanese encephalitis. All of these examples illustrate the need to identify highly infectious diseases at the very earliest stage - when there are just a few cases - allowing public health officials to thwart these new viruses from spreading globally.

"This research may be critical to rapidly deciding which outbreaks are something completely novel and have pandemic potential, rather than a repeat outbreak of a known pathogen. It allows public health agencies to target their resources in the most efficient way, and helps protect us from new emerging diseases, which often erupt in remote corners of the Earth where it is sometimes very difficult to obtain vital information, let alone biological samples to test for various pathogens," said Dr. Peter Daszak, corresponding author and President of EcoHealth Alliance. "Another aspect that we are looking at is using this tool to pinpoint possible bio-terrorism, such an act will produce immediate symptoms that are unusual, and would likely light up on our network analysis," added Dr. Daszak.

This study was funded by United States Agency for International Development (USAID) Emerging Pandemic Threats PREDICT, National Institutes of Health/National Science Foundation RAPID 'Ecology and Evolution of Infectious Diseases' from the John E. Fogarty International Center, DTRA, the Rockefeller Foundation, and the New York Community Trust.

About EcoHealth Alliance
Building on over 40 years of groundbreaking science, EcoHealth Alliance is a global, nonprofit organization dedicated to protecting wildlife and safeguarding human health from the emergence of disease. The organization develops ways to combat the effects of damaged ecosystems on human and wildlife health. Using environmental and health data covering the past 60 years, EcoHealth Alliance scientists created the first-ever, global disease hotspots map that identified at-risk regions, to help predict and prevent the next pandemic crisis. That work is the foundation of EcoHealth Alliance's rigorous, science-based approach, focused at the intersection of the environment, health, and capacity building. Working in the U.S. and more than 20 countries worldwide, EcoHealth Alliance's strength is founded on innovations in research, training, global partnerships, and policy initiatives. For more information, please visit www.ecohealthalliance.org.

Anthony M. Ramos | EurekAlert!
Further information:
http://www.ecohealthalliance.org

More articles from Health and Medicine:

nachricht How cancer metastasis happens: Researchers reveal a key mechanism
19.01.2018 | Weill Cornell Medicine

nachricht Researchers identify new way to unmask melanoma cells to the immune system
17.01.2018 | Duke University Medical Center

All articles from Health and Medicine >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: Maschinelles Lernen im Quantenlabor

Auf dem Weg zum intelligenten Labor präsentieren Physiker der Universitäten Innsbruck und Wien ein lernfähiges Programm, das eigenständig Quantenexperimente entwirft. In ersten Versuchen hat das System selbständig experimentelle Techniken (wieder)entdeckt, die heute in modernen quantenoptischen Labors Standard sind. Dies zeigt, dass Maschinen in Zukunft auch eine kreativ unterstützende Rolle in der Forschung einnehmen könnten.

In unseren Taschen stecken Smartphones, auf den Straßen fahren intelligente Autos, Experimente im Forschungslabor aber werden immer noch ausschließlich von...

Im Focus: Artificial agent designs quantum experiments

On the way to an intelligent laboratory, physicists from Innsbruck and Vienna present an artificial agent that autonomously designs quantum experiments. In initial experiments, the system has independently (re)discovered experimental techniques that are nowadays standard in modern quantum optical laboratories. This shows how machines could play a more creative role in research in the future.

We carry smartphones in our pockets, the streets are dotted with semi-autonomous cars, but in the research laboratory experiments are still being designed by...

Im Focus: Fliegen wird smarter – Kommunikationssystem LYRA im Lufthansa FlyingLab

• Prototypen-Test im Lufthansa FlyingLab
• LYRA Connect ist eine von drei ausgewählten Innovationen
• Bessere Kommunikation zwischen Kabinencrew und Passagieren

Die Zukunft des Fliegens beginnt jetzt: Mehrere Monate haben die Finalisten des Mode- und Technologiewettbewerbs „Telekom Fashion Fusion & Lufthansa FlyingLab“...

Im Focus: Ein Atom dünn: Physiker messen erstmals mechanische Eigenschaften zweidimensionaler Materialien

Die dünnsten heute herstellbaren Materialien haben eine Dicke von einem Atom. Sie zeigen völlig neue Eigenschaften und sind zweidimensional – bisher bekannte Materialien sind dreidimensional aufgebaut. Um sie herstellen und handhaben zu können, liegen sie bislang als Film auf dreidimensionalen Materialien auf. Erstmals ist es Physikern der Universität des Saarlandes um Uwe Hartmann jetzt mit Forschern vom Leibniz-Institut für Neue Materialien gelungen, die mechanischen Eigenschaften von freitragenden Membranen atomar dünner Materialien zu charakterisieren. Die Messungen erfolgten mit dem Rastertunnelmikroskop an Graphen. Ihre Ergebnisse veröffentlichen die Forscher im Fachmagazin Nanoscale.

Zweidimensionale Materialien sind erst seit wenigen Jahren bekannt. Die Wissenschaftler André Geim und Konstantin Novoselov erhielten im Jahr 2010 den...

Im Focus: Forscher entschlüsseln zentrales Reaktionsprinzip von Metalloenzymen

Sogenannte vorverspannte Zustände beschleunigen auch photochemische Reaktionen

Was ermöglicht den schnellen Transfer von Elektronen, beispielsweise in der Photosynthese? Ein interdisziplinäres Forscherteam hat die Funktionsweise wichtiger...

Alle Focus-News des Innovations-reports >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

IHR
JOB & KARRIERE
SERVICE
im innovations-report
in Kooperation mit academics
Veranstaltungen

Kongress Meditation und Wissenschaft

19.01.2018 | Veranstaltungen

LED Produktentwicklung – Leuchten mit aktuellem Wissen

18.01.2018 | Veranstaltungen

6. Technologie- und Anwendungsdialog am 18. Januar 2018 an der TH Wildau: „Intelligente Logistik“

18.01.2018 | Veranstaltungen

 
VideoLinks
B2B-VideoLinks
Weitere VideoLinks >>>
Aktuelle Beiträge

Rittal vereinbart mit dem Betriebsrat von RWG Sozialplan - Zukunftsorientierter Dialog führt zur Einigkeit

19.01.2018 | Unternehmensmeldung

Open Science auf offener See

19.01.2018 | Geowissenschaften

Original bleibt Original - Neues Produktschutzverfahren für KFZ-Kennzeichenschilder

19.01.2018 | Informationstechnologie