Forum für Wissenschaft, Industrie und Wirtschaft

Hauptsponsoren:     3M 
Datenbankrecherche:

 

Projected sea-level rise may be underestimated

28.11.2012
The rate of sea-level rise in the past decades is greater than projected by the latest assessments of the IPCC, while global temperature increases in good agreement with its best estimates.
This is shown by a study now published in the journal Environmental Research Letters. Stefan Rahmstorf from the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and his colleagues compare climate projections to actual observations from 1990 up to 2011. That sea level is rising faster than expected could mean that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) sea-level rise projections for the future may be biased low as well, their results suggest.

Sea-level rise potentially affects millions of people all around the world in coastal areas as well as megacities like Tokyo.

“Global temperature continues to rise at the rate that was projected in the last two IPCC Reports. This shows again that global warming has not slowed down or is lagging behind the projections,” Rahmstorf says. Five global land and ocean temperature series were averaged and compared to IPCC projections by the scientists from Potsdam, the Laboratoire d’Etudes en Géophysique et Océanographie Spatiales (LEGOS) in France and the US based Tempo Analytics. To allow for a more accurate comparison with projections, the scientists accounted for short-term temperature variations due to El Niño events, solar variability and volcanic eruptions. The results confirm that global warming, which was predicted by scientists in the 1960s and 1970s as a consequence of increasing greenhouse concentrations, continues unabated at a rate of 0.16 °C per decade and follows IPCC projections closely.

Data of sea-level rise provided a different picture though. The oceans are rising 60 per cent faster than the IPCC’s latest best estimates, according to the new research. The researchers compared those estimates to satellite data of observed sea-level rise. "Satellites have a much better coverage of the globe than tide gauges and are able to measure much more accurately by using radar waves and their reflection from the sea surface", Anny Cazenave from LEGOS explains. While the IPCC projected sea-level rise to be at a rate of 2 mm per year, satellite data recorded a rate of 3.2 mm per year. The increased rate of sea-level rise is unlikely to be caused by a temporary episode of ice discharge from the ice sheets in Greenland or Antarctica or other internal variabilities in the climate system, according to the study, because it correlates very well with the increase in global temperature.

“In contrast to the physics of global warming itself, sea-level rise is much more complex,” Rahmstorf says. “To improve future projections it is very important to keep track of how well past projections match observational data.” Rahmstorf stresses that “the new findings highlight that the IPCC is far from being alarmist and in fact in some cases rather underestimates possible risks.”

Article: Rahmstorf, S, Foster, G., Cazenave, A. (2012): Comparing climate projections to observations up to 2011. Environmental Research Letters 7 044035 (doi:10.1088/1748-9326/7/4/044035)

For further information please contact:
PIK press office
Phone: +49 331 288 25 07
E-Mail: press@pik-potsdam.de

Sarah Messina | PIK Potsdam
Further information:
http://www.pik-potsdam.de
http://iopscience.iop.org/1748-9326/7/4/044035/article

More articles from Earth Sciences:

nachricht Novel method for investigating pore geometry in rocks
17.06.2018 | Kyushu University, I2CNER

nachricht Decades of satellite monitoring reveal Antarctic ice loss
14.06.2018 | University of Maryland

All articles from Earth Sciences >>>

The most recent press releases about innovation >>>

Die letzten 5 Focus-News des innovations-reports im Überblick:

Im Focus: AchemAsia 2019 in Shanghai

Die AchemAsia geht in ihr viertes Jahrzehnt und bricht auf zu neuen Ufern: Das International Expo and Innovation Forum for Sustainable Chemical Production findet vom 21. bis 23. Mai 2019 in Shanghai, China statt. Gleichzeitig erhält die Veranstaltung ein aktuelles Profil: Die elfte Ausgabe fokussiert auf Themen, die für Chinas Prozessindustrie besonders relevant sind, und legt den Schwerpunkt auf Nachhaltigkeit und Innovation.

1989 wurde die AchemAsia als Spin-Off der ACHEMA ins Leben gerufen, um die Bedürfnisse der sich damals noch entwickelnden Iindustrie in China zu erfüllen. Seit...

Im Focus: AchemAsia 2019 will take place in Shanghai

Moving into its fourth decade, AchemAsia is setting out for new horizons: The International Expo and Innovation Forum for Sustainable Chemical Production will take place from 21-23 May 2019 in Shanghai, China. With an updated event profile, the eleventh edition focusses on topics that are especially relevant for the Chinese process industry, putting a strong emphasis on sustainability and innovation.

Founded in 1989 as a spin-off of ACHEMA to cater to the needs of China’s then developing industry, AchemAsia has since grown into a platform where the latest...

Im Focus: Li-Fi erstmals für das industrielle Internet der Dinge getestet

Mit einer Abschlusspräsentation im BMW Werk München wurde das BMBF-geförderte Projekt OWICELLS erfolgreich abgeschlossen. Dabei wurde eine Li-Fi Kommunikation zu einem mobilen Roboter in einer 5x5m² Fertigungszelle demonstriert, der produktionsübliche Vorgänge durchführt (Teile schweißen, umlegen und prüfen). Die robuste, optische Drahtlosübertragung beruht auf räumlicher Diversität, d.h. Daten werden von mehreren LEDs und mehreren Photodioden gleichzeitig gesendet und empfangen. Das System kann Daten mit mehr als 100 Mbit/s und fünf Millisekunden Latenz übertragen.

Moderne Produktionstechniken in der Automobilindustrie müssen flexibler werden, um sich an individuelle Kundenwünsche anpassen zu können. Forscher untersuchen...

Im Focus: First real-time test of Li-Fi utilization for the industrial Internet of Things

The BMBF-funded OWICELLS project was successfully completed with a final presentation at the BMW plant in Munich. The presentation demonstrated a Li-Fi communication with a mobile robot, while the robot carried out usual production processes (welding, moving and testing parts) in a 5x5m² production cell. The robust, optical wireless transmission is based on spatial diversity; in other words, data is sent and received simultaneously by several LEDs and several photodiodes. The system can transmit data at more than 100 Mbit/s and five milliseconds latency.

Modern production technologies in the automobile industry must become more flexible in order to fulfil individual customer requirements.

Im Focus: ALMA entdeckt Trio von Baby-Planeten rund um neugeborenen Stern

Neuartige Technik, um die jüngsten Planeten in unserer Galaxis zu finden

Zwei unabhängige Astronomenteams haben mit ALMA überzeugende Belege dafür gefunden, dass sich drei junge Planeten im Orbit um den Säuglingsstern HD 163296...

Alle Focus-News des Innovations-reports >>>

Anzeige

Anzeige

VideoLinks
Industrie & Wirtschaft
Veranstaltungen

Simulierter Eingriff am virtuellen Herzen

18.06.2018 | Veranstaltungen

Künstliche Intelligenz – Schafft der Mensch seine Arbeit ab?

15.06.2018 | Veranstaltungen

Internationale Konferenz zur Asteroidenforschung in Garching

13.06.2018 | Veranstaltungen

VideoLinks
Wissenschaft & Forschung
Weitere VideoLinks im Überblick >>>
 
Aktuelle Beiträge

Simulierter Eingriff am virtuellen Herzen

18.06.2018 | Veranstaltungsnachrichten

Nierentumor: Genetischer Auslöser entdeckt

18.06.2018 | Biowissenschaften Chemie

Schnell, günstig, tragbar: Testgerät PIDcheck prüft Solarmodule im Feld auf PID

18.06.2018 | Energie und Elektrotechnik

Weitere B2B-VideoLinks
IHR
JOB & KARRIERE
SERVICE
im innovations-report
in Kooperation mit academics